Pretty much. For every project that makes it, thousands die off in the new section mostly unnoticed, let alone on the homepage. Probably have a better chance getting struck by lightning.
which is why incubators lower the odds of failure and have mobs of people trying to get in. another validation of the lottery scenario is that even smart people keep launching companies, trying to find the one which catches the invisible wave. invisible wave = launching at the right time + getting lots of enduring love.
