This is an important point. Elections follow similar patterns every cycle, including much bravado. Silver totally disrupts that with data--it's not just the punditry that is angry with him, it's political operatives. He's pulling the curtain back and revealing the "wizard of Oz", so to speak.

If you really want to know which side feels less-than-confident about their chances, the best indicator is "leaks" from campaign insiders that talk about the candidates' future plans. Laying the groundwork early is an irresistible urge for those who think they might be in trouble.