This is a very self-aware piece, and worth taking in. But here's the buried TL;DR:
* It's going to superficially resemble 2014.
* However, every object in the real world is going to be providing a constant stream of metadata about its environment — and I mean every object.
* The frameworks used for channeling this firehose of environment data are going to be insecure and ramshackle, with foundations built on decades-old design errors.
* The commercial internet funding model of 1994 — advertising — is still influential, and its blind-spots underpin the attitude of the internet of things to our privacy and security.
* How physical products are manufactured and distributed may be quite different from 2014. In particular, expect more 3D printing at end-points and less long-range shipment of centrally manufactured products. But in many cases, how we use the products may be the same.
* The continuing trend towards fewer people being employed in manufacturing, and greater automation of service jobs, will continue.
What got me was advertising is still the monetisation of the internet / of things.
I would assume that because the next major product is going to be data (from pavement slabs !) that it is data that will be monetised - somehow. But I would assume that IP rights become DP - Data Property. And I charge people for use of my data (from my underpants) and they charge me for the analysis of the aggregated data - if we are sensible in a similar manner to internt exchanges now - mostly up balances down.
A "data property" system that gives the majority of people rights over their personal data is never going to be built. We're far more likely to see "data feudalism", in which the systems you require to get by in the world extract your data as a toll for living in the modern world. In return, you get a certain limited amount of security against other*, nastier, agents trying to get at your data. See https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2012/12/feudal_sec.ht...
(there's an excellent book called "Information Feudalism" on related IP issues)
I produce data, data is produced about me - data seems more like a crop - and crops tend to belong to the owner of the ground they grew in - in the modern case it will be the nation state not the feudal lord - it owns the roads that have the sensors that watch the cars and the underwear. We the taxpayer argue now that our tax money that goes to produce our maps should get our map data for free.
Why should the same open data ideal not apply to data produced from tax funded roads?
I am more optimistic that having achieved democracy we will not throw it away so easily.
"advertising is still the monetisation of the internet / of things"
That works pretty well after only a couple generations of concentration of wealth at the top.
In the long run, during the dark ages or during the Roman Empire era, how many highway billboards were there?
A glance at images.google.com doesn't show much advertising in Bangladesh, or at least it doesn't look like Vegas does today.
It would be wise to come up with an alternative funding model for the internet / internet of things if the former 1st world is moving as fast as possible to the 3rd world model of a couple rich guys having all the money and all the land and all the power, and everyone else gets $1/day for rice 'n beans and some bread 'n circuses.
I'm not trying to make a political point that this is wrong or should be changed (although I agree with that) merely making the point of take existing multi-generational graphs and extend the lines and if you think you're going to "finance the entire internet" by mortgage broker banner ads when the population has no money to spend, you're likely to be horribly disappointed.
Or rephrased another way the likely cause of death of cable TV is not likely to be a superior tech, but a lack of money to buy subscriptions.
I like the idea that advertising represents a healthy society in that there is enough wealth spread about to make ads effective (no point advertising to the destitute)
I was however arguing against using ads to find the internet of things - not sure what will be the business model but ads just do not cut it.
* It's going to superficially resemble 2014.
* However, every object in the real world is going to be providing a constant stream of metadata about its environment — and I mean every object.
* The frameworks used for channeling this firehose of environment data are going to be insecure and ramshackle, with foundations built on decades-old design errors.
* The commercial internet funding model of 1994 — advertising — is still influential, and its blind-spots underpin the attitude of the internet of things to our privacy and security.
* How physical products are manufactured and distributed may be quite different from 2014. In particular, expect more 3D printing at end-points and less long-range shipment of centrally manufactured products. But in many cases, how we use the products may be the same.
* The continuing trend towards fewer people being employed in manufacturing, and greater automation of service jobs, will continue.